Property tax carries 47% of San Francisco's own revenue, 4.0 points above other large California cities once each is combined with its county. The roll it rests on has not turned: downtown commercial assessed value on the same parcels is up 18.4% against 2019, while the downtown parcels that actually changed hands were marked to 0.68 of their prior assessment.
Three projects, one tax base: what San Francisco's assessed roll already records, what the activity records show now, and the mechanical delay between them.
San Francisco's own revenue rests unusually heavily on a property tax roll that is locked below market, losing value downtown, and tied to a shrinking protected residential stock.
Three projects measured this city separately and were never put side by side. Together they describe one exposure rather than three subjects: the roll is what the city taxes, and each project watches a different thing happening to it.
This is not a forecast. the roll is a lagging record with a mechanical delay. This page states which indicators have turned and which have not yet reached the roll. It does not put a number on the roll two years out.
if the roll moved with the activity records there would be no lag to describe.
That was tested rather than assumed. Across the neighborhoods both projects measure, the change in commercial assessed value and the change in active businesses rank-correlate at -0.079, and with jobs at -0.224, against a bar of 0.2 set before the comparison ran. They do not move together, which is what makes the lag real: under Proposition 13 an unsold parcel's assessment compounds at the inflation factor whatever the market does, and new construction enters at full value.
What the assessor's closed roll and the city's own revenue reports already record. These are facts about the tax base as it stands.
the roll's own downtown total on parcels present in both years
lag · an assessment appeal takes one to three years to resolve, and the reduction reaches the roll only when it is granted
SF Budget BlockProposition 13 holds long-held assessments far under what the same street fetches at sale; the gap is locked in until the parcel changes hands
lag · a sale in year Y is reflected in the Y+1 roll
SF Budget Blockthe only route by which a capped assessment can fall, so this is the roll admitting the market
lag · an assessment appeal takes one to three years to resolve, and the reduction reaches the roll only when it is granted
SF Budget Blocka claim on the same housing the roll rests on, ahead of any earthquake
Densest in Hunters Point.
lag · a completed building enters the roll at full value in the roll after completion
SF Budget Blockthis is the exposure. The more of the city's own revenue rests on the roll, the more a locked and lagging roll matters
Against a median of 43.4%, +4.0 points. against other cities combined with their counties, because San Francisco is both.
lag · the latest CLOSED roll is a year behind the newest activity data, and the budget in force is built on it
SF and the RecoveryWhat the activity records show now. Each has a mechanical delay before it can reach the roll, and the delay is stated rather than estimated.
what the market paid for the parcels it actually priced. The roll marks only what sells; the rest is not marked at all
Measured on 25 sales.
lag · a sale in year Y is reflected in the Y+1 roll
SF Budget Blockthe gap that is not explained by which industries the city held. Payroll is not on the roll at all; it is what fills the buildings the roll values
lag · the latest CLOSED roll is a year behind the newest activity data, and the budget in force is built on it
SF and the Recoverysales tax is the city's second own-source line and it moves with activity immediately, unlike the roll
lag · none: sales tax follows the quarter
SF and the Recoverywho still comes to the buildings downtown. Weak, though the whole network is weak and the long commuter stations are weaker still
lag · the latest CLOSED roll is a year behind the newest activity data, and the budget in force is built on it
SF and the Recoverythe spread between what a sitting tenant pays and what the same unit asks on the market is the incentive to move a unit from the protected regime to the market one
lag · a sale in year Y is reflected in the Y+1 roll
SF Housing Pressurepressure on the protected stock is mostly not demolition. The unit stays and the protection goes, which is a change of regime rather than a change of supply
Carried from the source: one permit carries 87% of the matches; without it the rate is 0.8%.
lag · a sale in year Y is reflected in the Y+1 roll
SF Housing PressureRead 2026-09-04 from the three projects named above. Every figure on this page comes from one of them; none is entered here, and a figure whose project is not current is left off rather than shown.
San Francisco's own revenue rests unusually heavily on the property tax, and the roll that tax is levied on is a lagging record by law rather than by accident. Under Proposition 13 an unsold parcel's assessment compounds at the inflation factor whatever the market does; it resets only at sale, and a granted appeal takes one to three years. This page puts three separate projects side by side against that one exposure. SF and the Recovery supplies employment, migration, taxable sales and transit; SF Budget Block supplies the roll itself, the Proposition 13 gap and the downtown write-downs; SF Housing Pressure supplies the rent-protected stock and the spread between asking and paid rents. Each indicator is placed on one of two sides, already on the roll or turned but not yet reaching it, and each carries the delay that separates the two. The page states directions and lags and declines to put a number on the roll two years out. The claim it rests on is testable and was tested: if the roll moved with the activity records there would be no lag to describe, and a cross-check between the two found they do not move together.