David Mar

San Francisco's payroll fell 8.3 points behind the nation's after February 2020, and only 0.4 of those points is the industries the city held; 6.8 is the same industries doing worse here. On the ground: business openings run 26% below 2015-19, asking rents rose 1.9 times as fast as rents paid, and downtown stations stand at 40% of 2019, while reported property crime is 51% below 2019 and remote work, which rose everywhere, does not sort the sixteen metros by their recovery. Of 10 indicators read for direction, 5 are improving and 1 worsening.

Why San Francisco's recovery ran behind every other large metro, what that looks like on the ground, which way the record points now, and what could move it: one page over three projects and two new pulls.

The San Francisco metro is the only large metro still below its February 2020 payroll employment (96.0 on a base of 100, 1 of 16); net income leaving the county ran 4.5 times its pre-pandemic pace, 60% of it to other California counties; the city's share of the Bay Area's taxable sales fell 2.3 points; and downtown BART exits stand at 39% of 2019.

Why San Francisco recovered more slowly than other metros, read from five public records: payroll employment, tax-return migration, taxable sales by city, BART exits by station, and the city's revenue against the state's other large cities.

In 70 of 76 rated neighborhoods the homes held since the last century are assessed at under half of what the same kind of home that just sold is assessed at; downtown's office write-downs have started on 78 unsold parcels while the roll's downtown total still reads +18% against 2019; and citywide overtime reached $513M in FY2025-26, 57% of it to Police, Fire and Sheriff.

One real Mission block in 3D, and under it the same public records read for the whole city: Prop 13 next door, the downtown tax hole, overtime as a budget line, and the soft-story buildings still not braced.

46% of San Francisco's homes sit in rent-controlled buildings, and in 5 neighborhoods they leave through evictions and buyouts at a rate that new permits do not begin to replace.

Rent control by neighborhood: the covered stock counted building by building from the assessor's roll, and every notice, buyout, permit and sale measured against it.

Two decades and 17 million rows of San Francisco civic data on one scrubbable map.

How long a storefront sits dark between tenants, block by block — SF against LA and Chicago.

Of 6 oil-restriction events with a measured volume, one actually restricted supply; when the Hormuz bypass itself was shut in September, the model gave two answers to the same barrels, and one of them was a refusal.

From barrels lost to margin lost: a supply-shock model that lands on a P&L, tested against the Hormuz closure and the pipeline that was meant to get round it.

The round trip on a collectable card costs 44% of the ask on a $20-100 card, and never less than 44% at any price — and above $500, almost nothing trades at all.

A market-health read on Magic singles from the one dealer that publishes both what it charges and what it pays, built to test whether the marked price of a card is a price anyone pays.

What actually changed between two versions of a financial model — in meaning, not cells.