Of 6 oil-restriction events with a measured volume, one actually restricted supply; when the Hormuz bypass itself was shut in September, the model gave two answers to the same barrels, and one of them was a refusal.
From barrels lost to margin lost: a supply-shock model that lands on a P&L, tested against the Hormuz closure and the pipeline that was meant to get round it.
A sensitivity model that turns an oil supply disruption into a Brent price move and then into margin impact for fuel-exposed businesses. Every event's headline barrel figure is checked against production and vessel-tracking data before it is used, and most headline claims over-stated the measured loss by three times or more. The Hormuz closure is the event that identifies the extreme regime, so the model reports two regimes and refuses to answer in the 5.03 to 9.79 mb/d range where it holds no observations. In September the East-West pipeline, the one route out of the Gulf that avoids Hormuz, was shut for 11 days after drone strikes; the dashboard draws it overland to Yanbu with the measured loadings at both ends, and asks the closure of a world as it stands and of a world in normal condition, which answer differently. Six interactive views, including a globe whose routes follow the real shipping-lane network, sit in the dashboard framed below.