Of five major oil-restriction events since 2019, one actually restricted supply — and the model's price multiplier turned out to rest on a single month.
From barrels lost to margin lost: a supply-shock model that lands on a P&L, tested against the Hormuz closure.
A sensitivity model that turns an oil supply disruption into a Brent price path and then into margin impact for fuel-exposed businesses. Every event's headline barrel figure is checked against production and vessel-tracking data before it is used; four of five headline claims over-stated the measured loss by three times or more. The 2026 Hormuz closure is the sixth event and is still running. An adversarial audit found the published price multiplier was identified by one month of data, so the model now reports two regimes and refuses to answer in the range where it holds no observations. Six interactive views, including a globe whose routes follow the real shipping-lane network, sit in the dashboard framed below.